CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T22:00:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2013 Oct 24 1308 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 31024
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 24 Oct 2013, 1310UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 24 Oct 2013 until 26 Oct 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 151 / AP: 007
COMMENT: There were six M flares and eleven C flares on the Sun during the past 24
hours. The brightest one was an M9.3 flare released by NOAA AR 11877 with
peak time at 00:30 UT on October 24, and caused a Type II radio burst with
estimated shock speed of 750 km/s. All C and M flares were produced either
by NOAA AR 11875 or NOAA AR 11877, both of which are beta-gamma-delta
regions with rapidly evolving topology. In the next 48 hours, X flares from
either region are possible. Since both regions are near the central
meridian, there is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and a warning condition
for proton storms is issued. In the past 24 hours, solar wind has varied
between about 310 and 350 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field has varied between 5 and 8 nT. The M4.2 flare of October 22
was accompanied by a faint halo CME, which could deliver a glancing blow to
Earth on October 27. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes
between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Active
conditions (K Dourbes = 4) with isolated minor storm intervals (K Dourbes =
5) are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to
a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22 (observed by LASCO C2
at 4:36 UT). Quiet conditions (K Dourbes 

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